BC Copper 2510 closed higher with a gain of 3.56% during the day. Copper ore production halt sparks market supply concerns [SMM BC Copper Review]

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2510 contract opened at 72,000 yuan/mt, closing higher with increased positions by bulls. During the night session, BC copper initially dipped to 72,000 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward. After the daytime opening, it fluctuated rangebound, touching a high of 73,780 yuan/mt, maintained narrow fluctuations, and finally settled at 73,590 yuan/mt, up 3.56%. Open interest reached 3,468 lots, an increase of 952 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 5,520 lots. On the macro front, since the mine leakage accident at Grasberg, the world's second-largest copper mine in Indonesia on September 8, the mine has been completely shut down for nearly two weeks. This situation triggered a sharp contraction in global copper supply, and the market began pricing in the broader impact of this event. PT Freeport Indonesia estimated that copper and gold sales volumes in Q4 2025 would be at low levels, while indicating that copper production in 2026 could decrease by approximately 35% compared to pre-accident projections. Market concerns about the future copper supply landscape continued to intensify. On the fundamentals, supply side, arrivals of imported copper maintained a normal pace, while domestic copper arrivals were relatively low. On the consumption side, affected by copper prices fluctuating at highs, stockpiling activities by downstream enterprises stalled. Inventory-wise, as of Thursday, September 25, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions across China decreased by 4,400 mt from Monday to 140,100 mt.

The most-traded SHFE copper 2510 contract settled at 82,660 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2510 contract price of 73,450 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is 82,998 yuan/mt. The price spread between SHFE copper 2510 and BC copper was -338, maintaining an inverted spread which widened compared to the previous day.